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Sat February 16, 2008

State property trends ride rising industry fortunes

By Richard Mize
Real Estate Editor

Real estate planning, developing, building and investing don't occur in a vacuum.

They ride the fortunes of other industries.

What are the industry sectors in the best shape now and for the readily foreseeable future in Oklahoma?

Here are the Top 10, according to Chad Wilkerson, executive and economist of the Oklahoma City branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Wilkerson presented the information in "The Stakes are High! Oklahoma's Defining Industries and the Future of State Job Growth” Thursday at the forecast of the Commercial Real Estate Council of Oklahoma City.

He ranked the sectors by location quotient as of 2005. That's a statistical technique that measures how many more times each sector was concentrated in Oklahoma than in the nation as a whole. Some might surprise you. Note that changes since 2005 have probably changed the rankings some.

Oil and gas. No surprise. The energy industry was 8.2 times more concentrated in Oklahoma. Surely more now. Construction for Chesapeake Energy alone should be its own subcategory.

Trade schools. Thanks largely to the state CareerTech system, trade schools were 4.5 times more concentrated here than in the rest of the country.

Gambling. Indian casinos! Gambling was 3.4 times more concentrated here. Casinos were everywhere, it seemed, in 2005, there are more now and more are on the way — and that means more land acquisition and more construction.

Farming. Ahhh, rural Oklahoma. Sniiffff! Smell that? Smells like money! Agriculture was 3.3 times more concentrated here.

Auto rental. Hertz in Oklahoma City and Dollar Thrifty in Tulsa made auto rental 2.9 times more concentrated here, although Wilkerson noted that high gas prices have put the brakes on it lately.

Machinery manufacturing. Thanks to revived energy and strong agriculture, equipment making was on the upswing. Still is. In 2005, the sector was 2.7 times more concentrated here.

Rubber manufacturing was 2.5 times more concentrated in Oklahoma. Dayton Tire's departure from Oklahoma City surely trimmed that number.

Call centers. Economic developers love them and hate them, but they are important to the state economy. A conscientious work force and relatively low labor costs make Oklahoma attractive: twice as concentrated here as in the country as a whole.

Meat packing. Call the hogs! Panhandle pork packers help make meat packing 1.9 times more concentrated here.

Military. Three years ago, the military sector was 1.9 times as concentrated in Oklahoma. Benefits from the most recent Base Realignment and Closing round will make it even more important in years to come, especially at Fort Sill and Lawton. The upgrading and privatization of housing at Tinker Air Force Base and Altus Air Force Base also factor into the future.

In the near term, the outlook is sunny for most Oklahoma industries, Wilkerson said.

"Oil prices are high and futures prices for both oil and gas remain elevated,” he said. "Manufacturers generally report solid orders and capital spending and hiring plans, and farm incomes and prices are generally solid. Casinos and call centers continue to open, and state military operations will benefit from ... realignments.”

The longer-term outlook is partly cloudy.

"Job gains in agriculture and manufacturing are expected to be restrained by technology and trade,” Wilkerson said. "The longer-term outlook for trade schools and auto rental companies is generally positive, while jobs in oil and gas and the military will depend on energy prices and U.S. defense activity. Future prospects for the state's new and rapidly growing defining industries — gambling, call centers and meat packing — are somewhat mixed.”

There you go, a template for where to look for opportunities to plan, develop, build and invest in real estate — from the industries themselves, to related and spin-off businesses, to the homes and apartments to house the people who work in them.

Worrying about recession? Give it up for Lent. Times are good here right now. Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

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