WHAT IF the national economy threw a recession, but Oklahoma decided not to attend? "We're not going to play along with the nation,” said Keith Geary, president of Capital West Securities in Oklahoma City. "For us here everything is going really well.”Two sectors that are slowing the national economy — housing and energy — are positives for the local economy. The average sales price of an existing home in Oklahoma rose last year by 4.24 percent while the number of foreclosures filed in the state declined nearly 13 percent. Meanwhile, about 39 percent of homes bought nationally last year are worth less than what the homeowners still owe, according to zillow.com. While local consumers are no happier with near-record gasoline prices than those who live elsewhere, Oklahomans pay among the lowest prices for fuel. And those high prices have fueled expansion in Oklahoma's robust energy sector, which produces jobs, higher wages and taxes for the state.

Mark C. Snead, director for the Center for Applied Economic Research at Oklahoma State University, forecast this month that the state's job growth could continue even through a national recession. His prediction was that a recession would, at worst, stall Oklahoma job growth only during the second and third quarters. "The insulation provided by a stable housing sector and high energy prices are expected to allow the state to enjoy very modest economic growth,” Snead wrote.

However, Robert Dauffenbach, associate dean for research at the University of Oklahoma's Michael F. Price College of Business, said Oklahoma's economy tends to follow the nation's in good times and bad. "My own research indicates that Oklahoma is fairly reliably impacted by national recessions,” Dauffenbach said. "The only period where we haven't had fairly close correspondence between what happens in Oklahoma and what happens nationally was in the late 1970s through about 1986 where we had the energy boom and bust. We did a whole lot better then a whole lot worse than the nation.” While soaring energy prices provide "insulation” from some national economic woes, Dauffenbach said, the state is not immune to economic cycles. "I generally don't buy the argument that swings in the national economy don't affect the state,” he said. "There are reasons to suspect that whatever recessionary dislocations occur will impact Oklahoma less than others.” On the positive side, Dauffenbach also isn't convinced that a national recession is inevitable. "I don't think we're in a recession yet. That doesn't mean one's not coming,” Dauffenbach said. "I'm seeing a lot of weakness, but I'm not seeing the dramatic drop-off that tends to result in recession.” The Fed's recent interest rate cuts were prompted more by investors than economic data, Dauffenbach believes. "Crying recession is one way in which Wall Street gets attention,” he said.

Sue Lynn Sasser, economics professor at the University of Oklahoma, said there often are marked differences in regional economic conditions across the nation. Sasser recalled that the Federal Reserve offered a lower discount rate in the Southwest during the 1980s when banks were closing at record rates. Some of that division showed up at an October meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee. When the panel voted to lower its target rate by a quarter-point in October, the only dissenting vote came from Thomas Hoenig, who represents the heartland area including Oklahoma. "Recessions look at national averages,” Sasser said. "There can be pockets of the country that are still doing well.”

For some local business people, this pocket is doing quite well. Paycom Chief Executive Officer Chad Richison said his Oklahoma City payroll company has been expanding so quickly that it has eased its previous requirements for a four-year college degree to increase the pool of potential employees. "If you're looking for a job, we're hiring. Dell laid off 200, and we're looking for those people,” Richison said. "Mortgage companies that had offices here (laid off workers). There have been other layoffs, and I'm paying people to go locate these people who were let go.” For Capital West's Geary, local optimism should outweigh national pessimism. "I think it's proper and appropriate to focus on Oklahoma,” he said. "We're doing better.”